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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
 
Hone appears quite disorganized on satellite and radar this 
evening. However, the earlier exposed low level circulation center 
is once again obscured by layered cloud, and a ragged band of deep 
convection has redeveloped around a portion of the low level 
circulation center. The current intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, 
which is a blend of the unanimous data-T numbers and current 
intensity estimates from the fix agencies. This could be generous, 
given Hone's messy appearance.

The initial motion is 280/12. Deep layer ridging to the north of 
Hone is expected to maintain the system on a westerly track the 
next few days. Later in the forecast period, Hone is expected to be 
increasingly steered by the low level tradewind flow to the south 
of a vast subtropical ridge spanning much of the Pacific. The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered and the latest official forecast 
is very similar to the previous.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows Hone is already in an environment 
of moderate shear. Over the next few days, Hone will continue to 
skirt along the southern periphery of the subtropical jet, 
subjecting the system to increasing westerly shear. This should 
continue the weakening trend, despite a gradual increase in sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track. The intensity 
forecast continues to agree well with the statistical and dynamical 
guidance, and dissipation is expected as a remnant low late in the 
week.

Mahalo to both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane 
Hunters for gathering much critical data from Tropical Cyclone Hone 
the last few days.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 19.3N 159.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 19.4N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 19.6N 163.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 19.8N 166.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 20.1N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 20.5N 170.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 20.9N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 21.6N 177.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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