ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Moderate westerly shear is continuing to take a toll on Hone. The 
low level circulation appears to be partly exposed and the center 
is likely near the western edge of an earlier burst of convection. 
PHFO and JTWC subjective intensities were 3.5, which agrees well 
with UW-CIMSS SATCON and AiDT. The initial intensity was lowered to 
55 kt with this advisory.

Hone continues to move just north of due west, 280/11, to the south 
of deep layer ridging. This general motion should persist for the 
next several days and the track guidance is still relatively 
tightly clustered. The current forecast is very similar to the 
previous forecast track. Although Hone will be moving over warmer 
sea surface temperatures, increasingly strong shear through the 
forecast period will continue to gradually weaken the tropical 
cyclone. Later in the forecast period, the low level trade wind 
flow will continue to take the shallow circulation of Hone on a 
westward journey. Most of the guidance shows a slightly slower 
forward speed prior to expected dissipation. The intensity forecast 
continues to be a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance, 
and very similar to the previous forecast package. Hone should 
become a remnant low in about 4 days prior to dissipation as it 
approaches the International Date Line.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 19.4N 161.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.5N 162.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 19.6N 165.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 19.9N 167.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 20.3N 169.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 20.7N 172.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.1N 174.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 21.7N 178.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
NNNN