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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Hone's low-level circulation center (LLCC) remained exposed 
in visible satellite imagery for most of the day, but the recent 
development of strong thunderstorms in the northern semicircle have 
since obscured it. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory 
is partially based on a 2013Z ASCAT pass, which also helped to 
refine the radii analysis. A subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimate of 3.0/45 kt from PHFO, and UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 48 
kt support assigning 50 kt for the initial intensity, especially 
given the recent increase in convective vigor.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11kt. A surface high currently 
centered to the north of Hone will be the primary steering 
mechanism driving the cyclone generally west-northwestward the next 
day or two, with some increase in latitude and slowing in forward 
speed expected after midweek as the high shifts eastward. Track 
guidance remains well-clustered, and takes Hone into a environment 
characterized by increasingly strong westerly winds aloft. 

Despite the strong winds aloft, systems like Hone are typically 
able to produce strong winds and deep convection on their north side 
for a couple of days as they gradually spin down from hurricane to 
post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity guidance consensus 
IVCN (and official forecast) support this notion, as well as 
simulated satellite imagery based on ECMWF guidance. It is expected 
that Hone will produce sporadic bouts of convection to the north 
and east of the center as it moves west-northwest, while strong 
(30-40 kt) westerly vertical wind shear prevents the convection 
from persisting over the center. Hone is forecast to remain at 
tropical storm strength through the next 48-60 hours, then become a 
post-tropical low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. If future 
convective elements are unable to develop or move over the center 
of the cyclone, Hone may become post-tropical sooner than indicated 
here. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 19.6N 162.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 19.8N 164.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 20.1N 167.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 20.5N 169.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 20.9N 171.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 21.5N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/0000Z 22.2N 174.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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