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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  20...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024
 
Corrected 36 h forecast position.
 
Deep convection continues to develop over the low-level circulation
center of Tropical Storm Hone this evening. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 3.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and at
2.0 from SAB. Meanwhile, a couple of SATCON estimates from UW-CIMSS
were around 50 knots close to 00z this afternoon. With little change
in satellite presentation since the previous advisory package, the
initial intensity has been held at 50 knots.
 
The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Hone will continue
slightly north of due west at a similar forward speed during the
next 24 hours, steered by a subtropical ridge to the
north-northeast. A similar motion with a slightly slower forward
speed is expected thereafter, as the subtropical ridge weakens. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
closely follows the track consensus guidance.
 
Hone will remain in a rather hostile environment during the next few
days with westerly vertical wind shear of 30 to 40 knots and dry
mid-level air surrounding the system. Despite increasingly warm sea
surface temperatures, the hostile conditions should lead to steady
weakening during the next few days, and Hone is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low Thursday.  The intensity forecast has
changed little and is closely aligned with the latest consensus
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 19.8N 164.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 20.0N 166.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 20.3N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 20.7N 170.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 21.2N 172.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 21.7N 174.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 22.0N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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