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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Hone continues to produce some vigorous deep convection, but this 
activity is not well organized, and the overall cloud pattern is 
rather ragged-looking.  The area of cold cloud tops has a sharp edge 
on the western side of the circulation, indicative of westerly shear 
over the system.  The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt in 
agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from PHFO. 

The storm is moving a little north of west with an initial motion 
estimate of 280/12 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast to 
remain north of Hone for the next 48 to 72 hours.  This should 
result in a generally west-northwestward track until the system 
dissipates later this week.  The official forecast track is very 
close to the previous one and in good agreement with the dynamical 
model consensus.

Hone is likely to remain in an environment of strong upper-level 
westerly winds for the next few days, which should maintain strong 
vertical wind shear over the cyclone.  Thus, even though the system 
will be traversing gradually warmer waters, shear and dry air are 
likely to cause weakening through the forecast period.  Simulated IR 
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models show the 
system losing most of its deep convection in about 60 hours, as does 
the official forecast.  By the weekend, the dynamical guidance 
indicates that Hone will open up into a trough over the western part 
of the Central Pacific basin.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 19.9N 165.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 20.1N 167.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 20.5N 169.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 20.9N 171.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 21.4N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 21.9N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1200Z 22.5N 176.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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