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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024

Some bursts of deep convection have been occuring in the storm's 
circulation over the past few hours, with cloud tops colder than 
-70 deg C.  However, the system lacks well-defined banding features 
and the area of cold tops continues to exhibit a hard western edge 
indicative of westerly shear.  The advisory intensity estimate is 
held at 45 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from 
PHFO, JTWC, and SAB.  This is also in good agreement with objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Hone has been moving between west and west-northwest and the 
initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt.  There is little change to 
the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A low- 
to mid-level ridge is expected to remain in place to the north of 
the tropical cyclone for the next 2-3 days.  With this steering 
scenario, Hector should move on a west-northwestward to westward 
track through the period.  The official track forecast is just a 
tad to the north of the previous one, and in good agreement with 
the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA.

Global models show persistent and strong upper-level westerlies 
impacting Hone for the next few days.  The SHIPS output diagnoses 
vertical wind shear on the order of 40 kt during the ensuing 48-72 
hours along with dry low- to mid-tropospheric environmental air.  
So, even though the system should remain over fairly warm waters, 
the otherwise hostile conditions should lead to weakening.  The 
official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus.  
Hone is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in 
2-3 days and dissipate soon thereafter.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 20.1N 166.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 20.4N 167.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 20.8N 169.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 21.2N 171.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.7N 173.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 22.1N 175.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z 22.7N 177.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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