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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
The low-level circulation center of Hone became exposed earlier
this evening, due to increasingly strong westerly vertical wind
shear of around 35 knots. Even though the LLCC is displaced to the
west of the persistent deep convection, the latest subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and
3.5 (55 kt). As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45
kt for this advisory.
 
Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/9 kt. This 
general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the 
north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the
system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the
International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in
forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this
interaction. Little change was made to the track forecast during
the next couple days, followed by a nudge to the north over the
weekend to better align with the latest dynamical and consensus 
guidance.
 
Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to
affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry
mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual
weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea
surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity 
forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone 
forecast to become a post-tropical low by Friday, and dissipate on 
Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which 
remains closely aligned with the latest intensity consensus 
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 20.4N 167.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 20.7N 169.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 21.1N 170.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 21.5N 172.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 21.8N 174.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 22.2N 175.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  31/0600Z 23.0N 176.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  01/0600Z 24.5N 178.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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