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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024
 
This morning's burst of deep convection near the center of Hone has 
faded, and the low-level circulation center has become fully 
exposed again. Strong vertical shear continues to keep the tropical 
cyclone asymmetric with deep convection confined to the 
northeastern quadrant. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB again came in at 30 to 55 kt. The 
objective estimates were 28 to 40 kt. A nice ASCAT pass from late 
this morning showed several 45 kt wind barbs. The initial intensity 
for this advisory will be kept at 45 kt, and the 34 kt radii were 
also expanded slightly based on the scatterometer data.

Hone will remain over warm SSTs through the forecast period. 
Vertical shear will remain strong over the next 2 to 3 days. The 
main question will be whether or not the strong shear will result in 
post-tropical cyclone status within that time frame. GFS simulated 
IR data seems to favor the post-tropical scenario. The high-res 
hurricane models favor maintenance as a tropical cyclone. The ECMWF 
has pulsing but generally decreasing deep convection that could 
result in post-tropical cyclone status between 24 and 72 hours. For 
this advisory, Hone is now forecast to remain as a tropical cyclone 
through the forecast period in deference to the high-res models and 
considering that its current deep convection is stronger than the 
GFS/post-tropical solution valid for the current time. In terms of 
intensity, the forecast generally follows the consensus of the 
objective aids and shows slight initial weakening, then keeps Hone 
as a 40 kt system until 96 hours. This forecast of relatively 
steady intensity reflects the possibility that despite the strong 
shear, deep convection will continue to pulse enough to maintain 
its strength. At the end of the forecast period, Hone is forecast 
to intensify, with several models showing an increase to typhoon 
strength beyond 120 hours west of the International Date Line.

For this advisory, Hone's initial movement is 280/8 kt. The tropical 
cyclone is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 
couple of days based on the tight clustering of the objective 
guidance. As Hone approaches the International Date Line, the 
tropical cyclone is forecast to interact with a developing low 
pressure system aloft, which will result in a turn toward the 
northwest. The various global models handle this interaction 
differently, resulting in greater spread in the objective guidance 
and greater uncertainty beyond 72 hours. Toward the end of the 
forecast period, there is a potential risk of impacts to Midway, 
Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 20.8N 170.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 21.0N 171.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.4N 173.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 21.8N 174.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 22.3N 175.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 23.1N 176.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 24.3N 176.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 26.5N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 27.5N 177.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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