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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024
 
Deep convection continues to develop to the north and northeast of 
low-level circulation center of Hone this evening. The center had 
been fully exposed for most of the afternoon and early evening 
hours as the cyclone continues to get hammered by 40 to 45 kt 
of westerly vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak current 
intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 2.0 (35 kt) 
to 3.0 (45 kt), while a 06z SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 40 
kt. These estimates in combination with the ragged appearance of 
Hone support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this 
advisory.

Hone continues to move west to west-northwest or 280/8 kt. This 
motion is expected to continue during the next 36 hours as the 
cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. After 
36 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with a developing mid- 
level low near the International Dateline. A turn toward the 
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected Friday and 
Friday night, followed by a more northerly motion and an increase in 
speed on Saturday. The cyclone is then expected to shift westerly 
Sunday through early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the 
north of the system. The track forecast closely follows a blend of 
the multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous 
track forecast. This track takes Hone toward the northwest Hawaiian 
Islands over the weekend, where there is some potential for impacts 
to Kure, Midway, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls.

Hone will remain under the influence of strong westerly vertical 
wind shear of 35 to 45 knots and dry mid-level air during the next 
36 hours. This should lead to slight weakening of the cyclone with 
convection continuing to flare to the north and northeast of the 
low level center. Beyond 36 hours, vertical wind shear will 
gradually trend lower while mid-level moisture increases. This in 
combination with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 C and 
high ocean heat content should allow for some strengthening of the 
cyclone if it manages to survive the hostile environment it will be 
in through early Friday. The intensity forecast calls for little 
change in strength during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual 
strengthening through the end of the forecast period. This 
generally follows the intensity consensus guidance through the 
forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made to the previous 
intensity forecast through 48 hours, with a slight upward adjustment 
beyond due to the increasingly favorable environment expected 
around Hone.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 20.8N 171.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 21.0N 172.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 21.4N 173.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 21.8N 175.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 22.4N 175.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 23.4N 176.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 24.9N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 27.0N 179.6E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 27.5N 176.5E   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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