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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024
 
Deep convection redeveloped very near the low-level circulation 
center of Hone during the past couple of hours, after the low-level 
center remained mostly exposed for a period of 12 hours beginning 
around 28/2200z. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates 
from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 2.0 (30 kt) to 2.5 (35 kt). A 
29/0825z ASCAT MetOp-C pass showed a swath of 30 to 35 kt winds to 
the north of the low level center. Given the decrease in winds noted 
in ASCAT and the satellite classifications, the initial intensity 
has been lowered once again with this advisory to 35 kt.
 
Hone continues to move west-northwest or 285/8 kt. This motion is 
expected to continue during the next 36 hours as the cyclone is 
steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, 
the cyclone will begin interacting with a developing mid-level low 
near the International Dateline. A turn toward the north-northwest 
with a decrease in forward speed is expected late Friday and Friday 
night with this general motion continuing through Saturday. The 
cyclone is then expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest 
with an increase in forward speed Saturday night through early next 
week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The 
track forecast closely follows a blend of the multi-model consensus 
aids and is very close to the previous track forecast. This track 
takes Hone toward the northwest Hawaiian Islands over the weekend, 
where there is some potential for impacts to Kure, Midway, and Pearl 
and Hermes Atolls.
 
Hone will remain under the influence of strong westerly vertical 
wind shear of 35 to 45 knots during the next 36 hours, with slowly 
increasing mid-level moisture. The strong shear should limit the 
potential for intensification during this time, and the forecast 
reflects little change in strength through Friday. Beginning Friday 
night and Saturday, vertical wind shear will begin to decrease while 
mid-level moisture continues to increase. This in combination with 
warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 C and high ocean heat 
content should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone if it 
manages to survive the hostile environment it will be in through 
Friday. The intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening 
Friday night through the remainder of the forecast, with Hone 
nearing Typhoon strength early next week to the west of the 
International Date Line. The intensity forecast was adjusted 
downward slightly during the next 36 hours, then adjusted upward a 
tad beyond 36 hours to better align with the latest consensus 
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 21.0N 171.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 21.3N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 21.6N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 22.0N 175.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 22.9N 176.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 24.1N 176.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 25.8N 177.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 27.0N 178.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 28.0N 175.0E   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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