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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024
 
Visible imagery this morning shows Hone's circulation is once again 
fully exposed, after an impressive burst of deep convection near 
the center overnight. Hone is, so far, continuing to successfully 
battle westerly shear, analyzed by CIMSS at about 45 knots, while 
moving over sea surface temperatures of about 28C. As mentioned 
earlier, the overnight ASCAT passes showed winds over 30 kt to the 
north of the center. Subjective current intensity estimates ranged 
from 2.5 from PHFO and SAB and 2.0 from JTWC. Various CIMSS 
objective intensity estimates came in slightly higher, but 
given the now once again fully exposed circulation, the advisory 
intensity was maintained at 35 kt.

One of the Hawaiian definitions for Hone is mischievous, or to 
tease. Certainly Hone has been living up to its namesake as both the 
track, and especially the intensity forecast, remain quite 
challenging and complex. A low aloft, seen in water vapor about 270 
nm north of Midway Atoll, is expected to dig southward. Hone's 
initial motion estimate is 290/6. The low level circulation, 
which has been moving west-northwest for quite some time, is 
expected to be pulled northwestward toward this low aloft and 
eventually get entangled with the circulation of the upper low. 
This will pull the low-level circulation of Hone more toward the 
north-northwest in a couple of days, and then as Hone and the mid- 
and upper-level circulation become aligned, resume a west-northwest 
motion over the western Pacific. There is decent agreement in the 
model guidance, given this rather complex interaction. The official 
forecast was nudged slightly more northward, toward TVCN and HCCA, 
but still close to the previous track. It should be noted that in 
the longer range, there are rather large differences in forward 
speed among the various guidance, with the models trending slower. 
At these time periods, the official forecast points were slowed down 
somewhat in deference to the guidance consensus, TVCN.

If Hone can survive its current battle with westerly shear, there 
appears to be an opportunity for reintensification.  The global 
models and SHIPS guidance suggest that the strong shear currently 
over Hone will eventually relax, and sea surface temperatures at 
that time will also be supportive of strengthening. The global 
models show a warm core redeveloping over Hone over the west Pacific 
in a few days, after the low levels and circulation aloft become 
well aligned. However, there is considerable variability among the 
guidance. The intensity forecast most closely follows IVCN, but it 
should be noted uncertainty is quite high.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 21.4N 172.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 21.7N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 22.1N 174.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 22.9N 175.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 23.9N 176.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 25.3N 176.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 26.5N 178.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 27.3N 178.3E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 28.7N 175.2E   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard/Foster
 
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