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Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 29 2024
 
The low level circulation center (LLCC) of Hone remains exposed 
this evening, with sporadic deep convection occurring 60 to 120 nm 
northeast of it. Deep convection near the LLCC may develop later 
tonight as cloud tops cool, but the overall satellite presentation 
is of a system in decline. Subjective Dvorak satellite current 
intensity estimates were 2.0/30 kt from all three fix centers. The 
objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS of 32 kt aligns with these 
subjective estimates, and the intensity is set at 30 kt for this 
advisory, keeping Hone a tropical depression.
 
Hone's track shows signs of a slight jog northward, with a short-
term motion of 285 degrees at 6 kt. However, this system is still a 
bit to the left of the previous forecast track. As before, the 
forecast track philosophy revolves around likely interaction of the 
LLCC with an upper low north of Midway Atoll. This upper low is 
forecast to dig southward over the next couple of days and Hone is 
expected to be pulled northwestward toward it. After Hone's LLCC 
and the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected 
to resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific. The 
track guidance envelope through 72 hours remains rather tight, which 
is a bit surprising given the complexity of the philosophy involved. 
The forecast track for this cycle has been adjusted a bit to the 
left of the previous one to account for 12 hour movement and to keep 
it within the guidance envelope, which has also been nudged a bit 
to the left. That said, the final track mirrors the previous 
track's north northwest turn through 48 hours followed by a 
resumption of west northwest motion afterwards.

Hone needs a healthy nocturnal convective bloom to begin 
reintensification. A very late-for-this-cycle surge seems to be 
starting along the northern flank of the LLCC. If Hone manages to 
survive its current battle with 45 kt of westerly shear, there may 
be an opportunity for reintensification. However, intensity models 
have become bearish on this possibility, with IVCN and HWRF showing 
modest intensification at best. As such, the intensity forecast 
has been lowered a bit beyond 60 hours while still allowing 
strengthening to a tropical storm again at 36 hours. It goes 
without saying that uncertainty remains high for track beyond 72 
hours and for intensity beyond 60 hours. Hone should cross the 
International Dateline as a mid-range tropical storm on Sunday, 
Hawaii time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 21.6N 174.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 21.8N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 22.6N 176.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 23.7N 176.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 24.8N 177.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 25.7N 179.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 26.4N 179.3E   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 27.4N 176.1E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 29.5N 172.9E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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