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Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 30 2024
 
Strong convection flared up once again last night, but more 
recently has weakened. The low-level center has become exposed again 
this morning. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC 
all came in at 2.0/30 kt while objective analysis ranged from 23 to 
41. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt. 

Initial motion is 280/10. Hone remains in a very hostile 
environment with UW-CIMSS and global models showing 45 to 50 kt 
westerly shear along the initial portion of the forecast track. The 
UW-CIMSS shows this strong westerly shear holding on through 24 
hours, while SHIPS guidance shows a decrease to 30 to 35 kt between 
12 and 24 hours, with further weakening between 24 and 48 hours. As 
the convection has weakened and been sheared away from the center, 
the initial motion returned to a more westerly direction. The 
forecast track through hour 12 is on the left side of the tightly 
clustered guidance envelope, following the slightly more westerly 
track that has been observed. Between tonight and day 4, the 
forecast track generally follows the center of the guidance envelope 
which begins to show more variability, and on the right side of the 
previous forecast. Beyond day 4, the forecast track has been shifted 
to the right from the previous track. This forecast track is on the 
left side of the current guidance envelope.

There is still a very wide range in the intensity guidance, due to 
the uncertainties of whether or not Hone will regain persistent 
convection while interacting with an upper low about 500 nm 
northwest of Hone, as well as what will occur with the deep layer 
shear. The current forecast maintains little change through the 
next 12 hours, with slow strengthening beyond that through day 5. 
Any intensification will be dependent on the westerly shear 
weakening, which SHIPS indicates could happen in about 24 hours. 

Because of the high uncertainty and guidance variability in track 
and intensity, it is prudent to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for 
portions of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands at this time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 21.9N 175.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 22.6N 176.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 23.7N 176.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 24.9N 177.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 26.0N 179.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 26.6N 179.1E   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 27.2N 178.0E   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N 176.3E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 31.5N 173.8E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard
 
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