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Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024
 
Hone is beginning to feel the influence of the broad upper level 
low located over the western portion of the Northwest Hawaiian 
Islands. New convection has been developing over Hone's outer bands 
during the day today, but the low level circulation center remains 
exposed. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC have 
remained at 2.0/30 kt, with CIMSS ADT and AiDT and DPRINT ranging 
from 22 to 31 kt. The initial intensity has been maintained at 30 
kt. 

The previous west-northwest motion has become quite erratic over the 
last several hours. When filtering out the short-term wobbles, the 
longer term motion for this advisory is 290/5. The upper low is 
expected to soon impart a more northward motion on the low level 
circulation center of Hone, with global models showing these 
features becoming well-aligned in the next 24 to 36 hours. After 
that, the steering flow around the now vertically stacked low will 
become light, and Hone will move quite slowly west-northwest. A more 
northwest motion is expected to resume as deep layer ridging is 
expected to build to the northeast and east of the tropical cyclone. 
For the first 48 hours, the forecast remains towards the center of 
the relatively well clustered guidance. Beyond that, the forecast 
remains on the left side of the guidance with little change from the 
previous forecast. 

The SHIPS guidance continues to show rapid weakening in the deep 
layer shear in the next couple of days, from 35 to 40 kt analyzed 
by CIMSS currently to less than 10 kt by 36 hours. In addition, sea 
surface temperatures are from 28 to 29C along the track for the 
next couple of days. Assuming that persistent convection can 
become reestablished over the low-level center, as indicated by some 
of the global models, this should give Hone an opportunity for 
redevelopment. The global models remain insistent that Hone will 
maintain tropical characteristics after merging with the 
aforementioned upper low. There remains considerable uncertainty in 
the intensity forecast, especially beyond 48 hours where the 
guidance spread is large. Little change was made to the previous 
forecast, which remains close to the IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 22.0N 176.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 22.8N 176.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 24.2N 177.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 25.3N 178.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 26.0N 179.9E   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 26.5N 178.9E   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 27.4N 178.2E   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 29.6N 175.8E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 32.3N 173.8E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard
 
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