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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024
 
The nocturnal convective bloom persists along the eastern 
semicircle of Hone this morning. Deep convection obscured the low 
level circulation center (LLCC) through most of the night, with the 
LLCC now emerging from the western edge of the cold cloud cover. 
Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values ranged from 
2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT 
was 32 kt and, although a few points were rain-flagged, ASCAT-C 
showed enough winds in the 30 to 32 kt range within the northeast 
quadrant to justify bumping Hone's initial intensity to 35 kt for 
this forecast cycle, making this system a tropical storm again.

It seems that Hone's forward motion slowed significantly just as 
the convective bloom obscured the LLCC last evening, causing 
uncertainty as to what initial motion to assign. With the partial 
re-emergence of the LLCC from the western edge of cold cloud cover 
over the past hour, confidence in an initial motion of 315 degrees 
at 3 kt is higher than it would have been previously. Forecast 
philosophy remains unchanged. Global models show Hone's LLCC and an 
upper low less than 300 nm to its north becoming well-aligned in the 
next 24 hours as the upper feature drifts south, drawing the LLCC 
toward it. Afterward, the merged system will move slowly west 
northwestward. Because almost all track guidance wants to pull Hone 
almost due north initially, in contrast to current motion to the 
northwest, the forecast track is just to the left of the envelope 
through 24 hours, with little change made in the track forecast 
through then. The forecast track from 36 hours through 60 hours was 
adjusted noticeably to the right to keep it within the guidance 
envelope, mostly following HWRF, and creating a more pronounced kink 
in the track at 48 hours as guidance depicts the newly-aligned 
system transitioning from a west northwest track to an almost due 
north track. Beyond 72 hours, the forecast track once again closely 
mirrors the previous one.  

The environment that Hone will encounter offers far less shear and 
continued marginally favorable sea surface temperatures over the 
next 24 to 48 hours, and Hone is forecast to slowly strengthen 
during this time. Except for HAFS, which still calls for stronger 
intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight 
and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within 
this envelope, close to TVCN. Hone's intensity will peak by 72 hours 
at 50 kt, then slowly decrease afterward as it travels across the 
western North Pacific. After passing south of the northwest 
Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the 
International Dateline late Sunday night Hawaii time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 22.5N 176.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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