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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024
 
In a seemingly never-ending cycle, Hone has been getting a very 
vigorous burst of sheared convection over the low level circulation 
center each of the last several nights, only to have the center 
become fully exposed each morning. Today is no exception, and deep 
convection has been mainly limited to Hone's outer bands. The CIRA 
ProxyVis has been particularly helpful to monitor this daily 
evolution. It should be noted that the low level circulation center 
looks a bit more ragged this morning than it has in recent days. 
Current intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, splitting the 
difference between the somewhat lower subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the slightly stronger objective machine estimates, and also with 
a nod to the overnight ASCAT passes.

The broad circulation of a low aloft about 200 nm south of Midway 
Atoll is beginning to pull Hone's low level circulation northward, 
and after about 24 hours of erratic, wobbly westward motion, the 
initial motion for this advisory is now 345/6. Track guidance 
remains in remarkably good agreement that Hone will continue to get 
pulled toward the center of the low aloft, with the circulations 
becoming vertically stacked in about 36 to 48 hours. A slower and 
perhaps erratic west-northwest motion is expected as that occurs. 
Although not explicitly shown in our forecast, both the 
deterministic GFS and ECMWF execute a complete loop of Hone over 
the International Date Line Sunday and Sunday night (HST). 
Afterwards, Hone should resume a more northward motion into 
the North Pacific. Beyond about 48 hours, this forecast track shifts 
a little to the right and slower than the previous forecast, to 
be more in line with TVCN and other consensus guidance.

It remains somewhat questionable whether the low level circulation 
center of Hone will survive the alignment with the low aloft. 
However, guidance continues to show that it should do so, and 
conditions do generally appear to be favorable for restrengthening. 
Shear decreases to less than 10 kt within 24 hours, and Hone 
encounters the warmest sea surface temperatures yet along its 
track, near 29C. Our forecast has Hone continuing to peak in 
intensity in 2 to 3 days, similar to IVCN. Afterward, Hone should 
begin to gradually weaken as sea surface temperatures along the 
track begin to cool, and mid-level dry air becomes entrained into 
the cyclone. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 22.7N 176.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 23.7N 176.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 25.2N 177.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 25.9N 179.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 26.8N 179.9E   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 28.5N 179.7E   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 30.0N 179.4E   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 32.1N 177.8E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 33.8N 176.5E   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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