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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 31 2024
 
The satellite presentation of Hone has deteriorated since the 
previous advisory, with the low-level circulation center looking 
rather ragged. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in at 2.5 (35 kt), 
while the objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt. As a 
result, the intitial intensity has been held at 35 kt for this 
advisory.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain as the forward speed of 
Hone has fluctated considerably during the past 12 hours, and is set 
at 350/06 kt. Hone is in the process of merging with a mid-level 
low to the west this evening. This should result in a turn toward 
the northwest with an increase in forward speed tonight, followed by 
a shift toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed 
on Sunday. The motion is forecast to become rather erratic and slow 
Sunday night as Hone remains under a mid-level low near the 
International Date Line. Hone should begin moving northward with an 
increase in foward speed Monday and Monday night as it moves into a 
weakness in a building mid-level ridges to the northwest and east of 
the system. A shift back toward the northwest is then expected late 
Tuesday through Thursday as a low and mid-level ridge build to the 
north of Hone. The latest track forecast was adjusted to better 
align with the latest model guidance and generally follows the TVCE 
consensus. 

Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next 
couple days, with warm sea surface tempreatures and low vertical 
wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and 
entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the 
potential for intensifcation however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level 
moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite 
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by 
72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast has been lowered in 
the extended range, holding the system at 35 kt during the next 
couple days, and showing Hone becoming a post-tropical remnant low 
by 72 hours, with dissipation expected by 120 hours. The intensity 
forecast is closely follows the latest intensity consensus 
guidance. 
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Papahanaumokuakea 
Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes 
Atolls.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 24.2N 176.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 25.3N 178.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 25.5N 179.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 26.1N 179.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 27.6N 179.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 29.3N 179.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 30.3N 179.7E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z 31.0N 178.0E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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