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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024
 
The satellite presentation of Hone has become very ragged overnight, 
with the low-level circulation center becoming very difficult to 
locate with much confidence. An 1130z Oceansat-3 pass indicated 
that the low level center of Hone has shifted west-westward since 
the previous and appears to be merging with the mid-level low just 
east of the International Date Line. The latest subjective Dvorak 
current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in 
at 2.5 (35 kt), while the objective intensity estimates were 
similar. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at a 
perhaps generous 35 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is quite uncertain due to the low-level of Hone 
being in the process of merging with the mid-level low to the 
west, and is set at 300/12 kt. This general motion is expected 
to  continue today and tonight along with a decrease in forward 
speed as Hone merges with a mid-level low to the west.  Hone should 
begin moving northward with an increase in forward speed Monday and 
Monday night as it moves into a weakness in building mid-level 
ridges to the northwest and east of the system. A shift back toward 
the northwest is then expected late Tuesday through Thursday as a 
low and mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hone. The latest 
track forecast was adjusted to better align with the latest model 
guidance and generally follows the TVCE consensus.
 
Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next
couple days, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical
wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and
entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the
potential for intensification however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level
moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by
72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast holds Hone as a 35 
kt Tropical Storm during the next couple days, with the cyclone 
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours, and 
dissipation occurring by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely 
follows the latest intensity consensus guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 25.0N 177.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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