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Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon 
consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a 
curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various 
satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be 
stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective 
satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and 
SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T 
numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there 
was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force 
winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the 
system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial 
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression 
has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta.

Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn 
toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as 
the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level 
flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of 
the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two 
while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection 
could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to 
spin down and dissipate later this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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