ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024
 
After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite 
imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less 
impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective 
numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there 
is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt, 
especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the 
next couple of hours.

Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low 
vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters 
and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is 
possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to 
12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not 
sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models 
show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC 
forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h.

Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305 
degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta 
loses its convection, it will be steered westward to 
west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on 
Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther 
north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion 
observed over the past 6 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
 
NNNN