ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
 
Data from the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers, which both 
provided a good sampling of Aletta's circulation, revealed that the 
system no longer had tropical-storm-force winds.  The scatterometer 
data also showed that the center of the tropical cyclone is 
displaced to the west of the remaining area of deep convection, 
presumably due to easterly vertical wind shear.  Accordingly, the 
system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this 
advisory.  During the next day or two, Aletta should be under the 
influence of increasingly dry air with continued moderate shear, 
while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures.  Therefore the 
system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 
hours, and dissipate soon thereafter.  This is similar to the 
previous official intensity forecast.
 
Aletta is turning to the left with an initial motion estimate of
290/10 kt.  The weakening cyclone should turn westward to
west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 18.7N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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