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Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
 
Multiple microwave images between 08 and 12 UTC indicated that
Aletta still has a well-defined center, and it has continued to
produce a small area of deep convection near that center. Objective
and subjective intensity estimates range from around 25 to 35 kt, so
the estimated maximum winds are still 30 kt for this advisory.
Aletta is moving westward (270/10kt) and a west-southwestward turn
is expected later this morning.
 
The small depression is located in a marginal environment, and a
combination of decreasing SSTs below 26 deg C, drier surrounding
air, and increasing shear should cause Aletta to lose its deep
convection later today. In fact, all dynamical guidance suggests
that Aletta will become a remnant low within the next 6 to 18 h. The
NHC forecast conservatively maintains Aletta as a tropical cyclone
on the longer side of that range, but still shows gradual weakening
through the forecast period. After it becomes a remnant low, Aletta
is expected to turn back toward the west and dissipate within 
another day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.8N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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