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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024

Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with 
the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep 
convection.  Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40 
kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest 
convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased 
to 40 kt.  This intensity is also supported by other recent 
satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt.

The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt.  The 
cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves 
along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered 
over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. 
Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as 
the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind 
flow.  The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the 
last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as 
well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus 
models.

Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to 
prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is 
forecast to stay over relatively warm water.  In addition, after  
12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level 
convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to 
keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated 
satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or 
less.  Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity 
forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a 
depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h.  The remnant low is 
forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with 
global model guidance. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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