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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024
 
Carlotta has changed little in organization since the last 
advisory, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central 
dense overcast with a complex of outer bands in the eastern 
semicircle.  Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates 
are mainly in the 45-55 kt range, and they have nudged upward a 
little over the past six hours.  Based on this, the initial 
intensity is increased to 55 kt. 

The initial motion is now 285/10 kt.  Carlotta is on the south side 
of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United 
States and the adjacent northeastern Pacific.  The ridge is 
expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and this should 
steer the cyclone more westward during this time.  After about 60 
h, Carlotta should move west-northwestward as it approaches a 
weakness in the mid-level part of the ridge caused by a large 
trough over the north Central Pacific.  The track guidance has 
again shifted northward, and the new forecast track, which is in 
best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, has also 
been shifted northward.

Carlotta is expected to remain in an area of light shear for the 
next 48 h, with sea surface temperatures slowly decreasing along 
the forecast track during that time.  Thus strengthening is 
expected, although the intensity guidance is forecasting less 
strengthening than on the previous cycles.  Based on this, the 
forecast peak intensity has been decreased slightly, and the 85-kt 
peak intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity 
guidance.  After 48 h, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea 
surface temperatures should cause Carlotta to weaken for the 
remainder of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 17.5N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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