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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024
 
Carlotta continues to hold steady.  Geostationary satellite imagery
show a healthy central dense overcast with periodic overshooting
cloud tops.  Recent microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 and
SSMIS reveal a more asymmetric low-level circulation.  Subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 48-61 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.
 
The storm is moving at an estimated 285/10 kt along the south side 
of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. 
The strengthening ridge is expected to turn Carlotta westward within 
a day or so and steer the storm slightly north of west for the 
remainder of the forecast period.  The official forecast has again 
shifted slightly northward, largely due to the estimated initial 
center location, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus 
model.
 
While the deep layer vertical wind shear appears to be weak, the 
microwave satellite imagery suggested Carlotta could be experiencing 
some moderate mid-level shear.  Models indicate the generally 
conducive environmental and oceanic conditions should allow for 
additional strengthening within the next day or two.  Beyond 48 h, 
cooling waters and more marginal environmental conditions should 
weaken Carlotta through the end of the forecast period.  The 
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast and lies 
near the top of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 17.9N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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