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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024
 
Recent scatterometer data indicate the center of Carlotta remains 
embedded within a small central dense overcast as deep convection 
has persisted near and over the center tonight. Satellite images 
indicate the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the 
western part of the circulation, perhaps the result of some westerly 
shear. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity 
estimates range from 54-65 kt, and the initial intensity is raised 
to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial tropical-storm-force wind 
field of Carlotta has been made slightly larger than previous 
estimates based on the scatterometer winds.
 
Carlotta is moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but a turn toward 
the west is expected later today as a ridge strengthens to the north 
of the cyclone. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is 
forecast through early next week. The model guidance has once again 
trended northward this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast is 
adjusted in that direction, mainly in the 72-120 h time frame. Based 
on the multi-model consensus aids, the updated prediction is also 
slightly faster than the previous one during the latter half of the 
forecast period.
 
The environmental and oceanic conditions are generally favorable for 
strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there remains 
some dry air in the surrounding environment that has at times 
disrupted Carlotta's organization in recent days given its small 
size. Assuming the inner core structure has improved based on recent 
convective trends, additional strengthening seems likely during the 
next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast remains on the high end of the 
guidance envelope, generally between the HFIP corrected consensus 
and the stronger HAFS-A/B regional models. Since Carlotta is a small 
cyclone, it could be susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations. 
The storm is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in about 60-72 h. 
Thereafter, weakening is forecast while Carlotta encounters cooler 
SSTs, increasing shear, and decreasing mid-level moisture.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 18.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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