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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

If not for a recent small burst of convection nearly 60 n mi from 
its center, Carlotta would be devoid of organized deep convection. 
The intensity estimate remains 40 kt, close to a recent UW-CIMSS 
SATCON estimate. Deep convection may persist today, but could cease 
at just about any time due to cold waters beneath Carlotta and a 
surounding dry and stable environment. By this time tomorrow, 
Carlotta should be a post-tropical cyclone.

Carlotta's initial motion remains 280/8kt. This general motion 
should continue today as long as Carlotta maintains some deep 
convection. A slight left turn toward the west-southwest should 
begin once the last of Carlotta's convection is gone. No significant 
changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 20.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 20.5N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 20.3N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 19.8N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 19.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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