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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the 
coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and 
southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this 
morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity 
guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial 
intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. 

It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more 
north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 
kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin 
later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the 
southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to 
the north. The global models still show a turn north and 
northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery  of 
Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite 
similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. 
 
While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel 
is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry 
air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, 
and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 
h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, 
choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition 
to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open 
up into a trough by midweek.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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