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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024
 
A 05/0422 UTC GPM/GMI microwave pass and GOES proxy-vis imagery
indicate that Daniel's structure continues deteriorating due to
the disrupting dominant monsoonal flow.  Despite the advantageous
microwave image, it has become increasingly difficult to pinpoint 
the cyclone's surface circulation center.
 
Some fluctuations in Daniel's strength are possible today while the 
cyclone continues its trek over warm waters and remains within a 
modest wind shear environment.  Afterward, the cyclone should move 
counter-clockwise around the eastern periphery of the larger 
Carlotta.  During that time, SHIPS statistical intensity guidance 
and the global models show increasing dry air entrainment, 
prompting the cyclone to weaken through the remainder of the 
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast agrees with the 
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus guidance and is similar to the 
previous advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, 060/10 
kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level 
southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through today.  After 
that time, global and regional models indicate that Daniel will 
move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, 
resulting in a turn toward the north and northwest while spinning 
down to a remnant low on Tuesday and eventually opening up into a 
trough on Thursday.  The NHC track forecast is an update to the 
previous one and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 14.8N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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