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Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this 
morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the 
circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. 
This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer 
data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm.
 
The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous 
forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion 
remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to 
continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower 
forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast 
follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit 
south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler 
waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely 
that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The 
updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant 
low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to 
spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open 
into a trough and dissipate by day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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