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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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