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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024
Fabio has remained steady this morning despite its close proximity
to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cold cloud-top temperatures associated
with the central dense overcast area that developed overnight have
persisted this morning. Further, subjective and objective intensity
estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS continue to suggest that Fabio is
holding its own. Based on these estimates and recent satellite
trends, the initial intensity estimate is held steady at 55 kt.
Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
300/15 kt. Uncertainty remains among the track guidance solutions,
particularly related to the interaction between Fabio and Emilia.
The current forecast favors the ECMWF solution that Emilia will
absorb Fabio, and the current forecast shows this merger occurring
in about 36 hours. However, the GFS shows two cyclones that remain
distinct and rotate around each other during the next three to four
days. The current forecast leans toward a merger and is similar to
the prior advisory and better-performing consensus aids.
While Fabio remains in a favorable shear and thermodynamic
environment, the proximity to Emilia should preclude significant
strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast now shows Fabio
remaining steady for the next 24 h before weakening slightly and
subsequently merging into Emilia. This is close to the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids. However, based on the divergent solutions in
the global models, a change in the forecast philosophy could be
required in subsequent advisories.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Forecaster Hogsett
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