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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A slower 
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next 
few days.  On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across 
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and 
over the Gulf of California this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible 
before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula.  However, 
weakening is expected to begin by late Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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