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Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Satellite imagery continues to show a circular eye that has been 
warming through the afternoon, with varying degrees of clearing. 
While the inner eye has not been as clear over the past few hours, 
subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have 
either increased or held steady, with a data-T value of T/7.0 and 
T/6.5, from TAFB and SAB respectively. UW-CIMSS objective intensity 
estimates have increased as well. Using an average of these 
intensity estimates and latest trends in satellite images, the 
initial intensity is set to 140 kt for this advisory. Therefore, 
Kristy has strengthened into a category 5 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Kristy's forward motion remains steady, estimated at 270/14 kt while 
being steered by a ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The 
hurricane will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge 
over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest and then the
north-northwest occurring through this weekend as a trough to the 
west begins to influence Kristy's motion. The system will  
rapidly weaken by the end of this weekend, with the remnants then 
turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow. The 
latest NHC track forecast has once again shifted slightly to the 
right, closer to the consensus aids, but remains on the southwest 
side of the guidance envelope.

For about the next 24 hours, Kristy looks to remain in a favorable 
environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and light 
vertical wind shear. Some slight fluctuations are possible in the 
short term, especially if the system has another eyewall replacement 
cycle. The environment then rapidly becomes hostile as the hurricane 
enters an area of stronger vertical wind shear, drier air, and 
cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance remains 
insistent on rapid weakening occurring through the end of the 
forecast period. Model-simulated satellite imagery also mirrors this 
trend, suggesting that Kristy will lose convection and become 
post-tropical by 72 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, and open 
into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast also follows 
these trends with only minor adjustments made this afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams
 
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