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Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024
 
Kristy remains a very powerful hurricane.  A ring of intense deep 
convection is relatively symmetric around the eye.  However, the eye 
itself has lost some definition during the past few hours.  The 
latest satellite intensity estimates range from about 130 kt to 140 
kt, and based on that data, and the slightly degraded satellite 
appearance, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 135 kt.  An 
ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago indicated that Kristy was a 
little larger than previously estimated, but still smaller than 
average.

The major hurricane continues to move westward at about 12 kt to 
the south of a ridge near Baja California.  A gradual turn to the 
northwest and then the north-northwest is forecast on Friday and 
over the weekend as Kristy moves around the ridge.  The system is 
also expected to slow down as a trough approaches from the west, 
causing the steering currents to weaken.  The models have trended a 
little to the north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been 
adjusted in that direction.

Kristy will likely maintain its strength overnight as it remains in 
an environment of low wind shear, relatively high moisture, and 
over warm 28 degree C waters.  However, a combination of much 
stronger southeasterly wind shear and progressively cooler waters 
should promote rapid weakening beginning Friday night.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance, but 
in fair agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.  Kristy 
is expected to become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 14.7N 122.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.4N 124.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 18.9N 128.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 20.9N 129.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Moore
 
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