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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
 
The depression has changed little in organization during the past 
several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing 
a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level 
center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the 
last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion remains 270/6 kt.  The depression is expected to 
continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is 
steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north.  The latest track 
guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier 
guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a 
little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope.
 
The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and 
over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h.  
While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane 
models and the global models show little strengthening during this 
time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore 
calls for little change in strength.  However, any strengthening 
would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the 
statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification.  
After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system 
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area.  A 72-h point as a 
remnant low was added based on the global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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