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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Satellite imagery depicts that Lane has been struggling the last 
several hours, and appears more disorganized. The overall convective 
canopy has deteriorated with warming cloud tops. Southwesterly shear 
is starting to increase based on the latest visible images, and the 
low-level center is located on the southwest edge of the convection. 
Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have remained 
steady throughout the day around 35 to 45 kt. Given the current 
satellite presentation and using a blend of these satellite 
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
Lane continues to move generally westward at 270/6 kt, and this 
general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm 
is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC 
forecast is very similar to the previous one, with a slight nudge to 
the left.
 
Some intensity fluctuations are possible through today, though 
southwesterly shear is starting to increase over the system. This 
shear combined with a drier airmass along the forecast track will 
lead to a steady weakening trend beginning on Sunday. Lane is 
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 36 h, 
although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even 
sooner than forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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