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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
 
Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming 
disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has 
attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However, 
an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level 
center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to 
moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B 
pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC, 
but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the 
initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with 
the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued 
southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air 
should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows 
Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in 
48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current 
trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers 
lose the vortex over the next day or so.
 
Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated 
270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be 
primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north 
side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward 
motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track 
forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the 
southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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