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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024
 
Fourteen-E is struggling to maintain organized deep convection.
Cold cloud tops in the tropical depression have warmed leaving a
small, isolated burst of convection over 70 miles west of the
exposed low-level center.  The most recent satellite derived surface
wind observations from this afternoon showed peak winds between
20-22 kt and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt for
this cycle.
 
The depression has turned eastward with an estimated forward speed
of 5 kt.  On Thursday, the cyclone should turn east-southward to
southeastward in the near-surface flow and maintain this general
motion into the early weekend.  The official track forecast has
shifted by quite a bit to the east due to the more accurate initial
position provided by the scatterometer data.  It lies closest to the
simple consensus aid, TVCE.
 
As noted in the previous discussion, wind shear and dry air seem to
be preventing the tropical depression from organizing further.
SHIPS forecast diagnostics have changed noticeably this cycle.
Instead of light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, global models are
now predicting the shear will be moderate-to-strong.  Intensity
guidance has shifted downward as a result and the official forecast
has been lowered to only show a depression throughout the forecast
period with dissipation occurring early this weekend.  This is if
the system can regain deep organized convection and maintain its
tropical cyclone status.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 13.5N 105.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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