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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM SHARY LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. 1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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