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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. 1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE IS FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD ALSO THEN BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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