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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

1. UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA.
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW COULD BE
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...AND THAT IT IS PRODUCING WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IF
ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A CENTER...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

IF A TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

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