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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL
SOUTH OF JAMAICA.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

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