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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

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