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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER AVILA
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