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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WHICH DISSIPATED NEAR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. 

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOCATED A
LITTLE LESS THAN A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF TAMPICO IS MOVING
WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY APPROACHING LAND...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE
THE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT 
ATLANTIC. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBACE...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INTERACTS
WITH REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA
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