NHC Graphical Outlook Archive
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER AVILA
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