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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 20 2013 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. 2. A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE... 10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BEVEN
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