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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean 
Sea are associated with a small area of low pressure. Nearby dry air 
is forecast to prevent additional significant development of the 
system as it begins to drift slowly westward during the next couple 
of days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal 
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic later today. This 
non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the 
central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures 
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear 
conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical 
characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the 
latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward 
followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Kelly