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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, on 
newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Isaac.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  Environmental conditions could become conducive for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few 
days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a 
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Upper-level winds appear conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a 
few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Konarik/Blake